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Old 12-23-2005   #1
dannysullivan
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2006 Search Predictions

I'm not a big fan of doing prediction stories -- mainly because I don't know how anyone can predict anything when it comes the shifting sands of search but more important, because I'm usually too busy writing about those shifts that never stop happening. Still, there's a number of search predictions going around, including John Battelle's over here.

How about a community effort? What do you predict will happen in search in 2006? Add your thoughts in this thread.
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Old 12-23-2005   #2
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I predict more lawsuits between Google and Microsoft. Think I will be right. Doh!
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Old 12-23-2005   #3
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MSN delay launch of Adcentre (in line with Microsoft policy), Yahoo start saying Ads by Yahooooooooooooo! and Larry and Sergey announce they're running for president

I reckon I'll get any 2 of 3
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Old 12-23-2005   #4
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1. After bugs are out, Google Analytics will be the most used tool for bidding, analyzing, tracking, etc... No more paying for tools to use bidding/tracking services.

2. Yahoo will combine their DTC, Marketing Console, and Search Optimizer to compete with Google Analytics.

3. MSN Adcenter will not be as much as a competitor to Google and Yahoo as first thought, even with the demographic information.

4. AskJeeves will partner back with Google for PPC.

5. Internet commercials will pick up, adding another option for companies online revenue/branding.

6. Due to internet commercials and other online ads picking up, companies will start looking more for "one-stop shop" online marketing companies rather than having 5 separate companies manage their tv, print, internet, website, and Paid Search.

7. A new search engine will emerge almost out of nowhere to compete with Yahoo and Google.
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Old 12-23-2005   #5
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Ahh the Good Life!

I predict that Danny Sullivan will break Google's algorithm and sell it for 50 cent, and become a millionaire! Meanwhile we will all be #1 for our respective phrases!
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Old 12-23-2005   #6
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Monetization of search - NEW

1) New tools will be offered to easily create vertical search engines for any topic

2) New ad model will bring new revenue opps to web-site publishers & bloggers
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Old 12-23-2005   #7
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I predict Mozdex.com will explode into a 4 billion page index by the end of '06
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Old 12-24-2005   #8
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PPC rates will continue to drop; YPN will (mprove relevance and be popular and bring more big boys into the contextual advertising market; Google's image as the White Knight of the Internet will continue to be tarnished by their own doing; Google will further drop Yahoo's PR.

More dot coms will go under and more dot coms will replace them, and the IT services sector will continue to profit.
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Old 12-24-2005   #9
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-PPC fraud will continue rising up (PPC rates will continue to drop as well)
-Local search will be improved (Outside US)
-Google PR will disappear (My dream )
-SPAM will be higher than ever (Ironic if SE improves algorithms)

Questions I don’t know

-Is G keeping on the top?
-Is MSN launching a new improve SE? (Not just Windows Vista)
-Is sandbox effect going forever or bigger than ever?
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Old 12-25-2005   #10
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I believe 2006 will bring the first widespread virus or worm based click bot bringing down the entire PPC market for at least one day. This will force the PPC providers to come up with a MUCH stronger solutions to protect advertisers and to re-gain their trust.
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Old 12-25-2005   #11
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That almost sounds like a threat Mikkel!
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Old 12-25-2005   #12
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That almost sounds like a threat Mikkel!
If it was, I wouldn't be so stupid to post it here - under my real name. I am not THAT stupid
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Old 12-25-2005   #13
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1. Microsoft will release IE7
2. Japan & China will start using IDN Domain names (International Domain Names) commonly.
3. The Western world will notice that Google, Yahoo, & MSN Japan have already added native multilingual domains to the algorithm
4. By the end of 2006 International SEM will be "tha thang".
5. Japan will beta a new search service & probably succeed.
6. Google intergrates Adsense for mobile content...
7. Yahoo Japan makes an easier way to sell online for Japan.

Last edited by Olney : 12-26-2005 at 10:11 AM.
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Old 12-26-2005   #14
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1) Search optimization and search marketing forums will continue with the same old repetitive banter making those of us who have been around from the start increasingly agitated with lack of new and valuable discussion.

I mean, how many times can we discuss the 'sandbox', hyphens-in-domain-names and Google page rank? enough already...

*** FYI shilly - regarding your #6 prediction of:
Quote:
6. Due to internet commercials and other online ads picking up, companies will start looking more for "one-stop shop" online marketing companies rather than having 5 separate companies manage their tv, print, internet, website, and Paid Search.
This already exists. It's called full-service advertising agencies and has been in existence since agencies have existed. Think BBDO, Austin Kelly, Saatchi & Saatchi ...and on and on. The problem is that their billing practices really only make them accessible to large companies and big spenders.

2) Organic optimization techniques will make some dramatic shifts on '06 in response to search engine algorithm shifts. The search engines are learning that *their customers* are growing tired of SERPS (search results pages) returning 5 pages of SEO'd pseudo-doorway pages filled with nothing but Google Adsense and Yahoo Search Marketing affiliate links.

example: do a search on google for "buy rolex watches"

3) Companies will rely less and less on "search marketing companies" as the world is learning that it's not about tricks and techniques which really just makes you look seo'd and shady and semantically challenged with keyword-heavy rhetoric running rampant --- it's more about clean code, well-constructed copy and basic common sense. Anything else is just a risk for being banned.

On that same point, many sites utilizing these keyword loaded techniques will step back and re-evaluate. It' all evolution.

4) Overture, Yahoo - whatever you want to call them lied. They haven't improved DTC. I predict they will continue to lie throughout 2006 (see my thread on "10 Reasons Yahoo Should Kill Direct Traffic Center " - http://forums.searchenginewatch.com/...5763#post55763

If you can stomach all the Overture client frustration, take a good look at the cheesy responses from Yahoo themselves. ...and the promises of change. NONE of which have developed. THEY LIED ...as I expected they would and the DTC is the same piece of garbage it was almost 5 years ago. ...5 years dudes and dudettes ...that's a long time and a sad example of corporate BS.

Happy Holidays and a fruitful New Year.

Sebastian.

MODERATOR NOTE:
Item 5 and part of four split into the Sebastian No Longer Moderator thread.

Last edited by dannysullivan : 12-27-2005 at 08:25 AM.
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Old 12-26-2005   #15
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In 2006, Google updates will be more aggressive against SEO factors used for ranking smaller sites. Many small pure SEO firms will be forced to focus on on-page and design elements only, or increase their repertoire to include PPC management, as "mom & pop" sites especially lose placement to bigger commerce sites.

The world will wake up to the marketing possibilities of IPTV.
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Old 12-27-2005   #16
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Analytics will be all the rage this coming year.

As big as PPC ROI and Tracking are, as big as chasing the alogorithm has been, Analytics will become the new obsession....

From that Click Fraud will be deleved into deeper.....
The real numbers for PPC and organic will be developed by industry...
The importance of placement will get better stats....

2006 will be the year of real numbers.
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Old 12-27-2005   #17
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What, you mean Imaginary Numbers are dead?
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Old 12-27-2005   #18
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Quote:
Originally Posted by projectphp
What, you mean Imaginary Numbers are dead?
No Inaccurate Numbers are dead... when large inaccuarcies are not accounted for the numbers look better than what they really are. Much of our ROI over the past few years have suffered from this.... but given we still make decisions based on them we are not losing.... just possibly not making as much as possible.
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Old 12-27-2005   #19
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google

I predict that google will be the biggest most ealthies company in the whole world.
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Old 12-27-2005   #20
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Here are a few things that can happen in 2006
  1. Regulations will be enforced in the PPC industry though it might take as long as the summer of 2007 for them to take affect.
  2. Microsoft might license it's AdCenter technology to certain sites owners who meet a defined criteria to run their own PPC program. Primarily to cut revenue from Google's AdSense program if nothing else.
  3. Google might loose some of its credibility for commercially oriented searches in the B2B sector- resulting in audience moving over to more targeted vertical search portals. I wouldn't be surprised if google comes up with GoogleB2B! but on a second thought this might undermine the Google brand name.
  4. Google might offer a free XML based CMS tool for websites. Or at the least a CMS plugin for popular HTML editing applications.
  5. Quite a few SEO operators will have to close up shop, due to increased Google Algorithmic updates. Resulting in more revenue being spent towards PPC campaigns.
  6. PPC campaign management s/w solutions become lot more intelligent, requiring lesser human intervention.

- Farees

Last edited by farees : 12-27-2005 at 10:55 PM.
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