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Old 05-03-2008   #1
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Yahoo says goodbye Microsoft, hello AdWords?

Microsoft has given up its bid for Yahoo. So I assume this clears the way for something I've been talking about here for the past few weeks - a major ad distribution deal between Yahoo and Google, where Yahoo carries AdWords Ads. Let's see how fast this occurs. Monday?
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Old 05-04-2008   #2
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Re: Yahoo says goodbye Microsoft, hello AdWords?

Not sold on this entirely. The test is the test. But what does it leave for Yahoo if they formally team up with Goog? For that matter, how much more or less control will advertisers get in the future?

I mean, this sounds good right now - but sounding good don't necessarily translate to operating "good" (well).

But, as Kevin Heisler pointed out, Yahoo's shareholders might revolt and there are chances that the stock will drop on Monday since part of the increase in share prices was due speculation on the takeover.
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Old 05-04-2008   #3
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Re: Yahoo says goodbye Microsoft, hello AdWords?

hehe

Hello AdWords, my old friend,
Ive come to talk with you again,
Because a search softly creeping,
Left its seeds while I was sleeping,
And the vision of too few paid results
Still remains
Within the sound of Panama.

In restless dreams I walked alone
Narrow streets of organic spam,
neath the halo Microsoft,
I turned my browser to the cold and damp
When my eyes were stabbed by the flash of
An arbitrage ad
That split the night
And touched the sound of Panama.

And in the naked light I saw
Ten percent market share, maybe more.
People searching without looking,
People clicking without choosing,
People visiting sites that humans never share
And no one dared
Disturb the sound of Panama.

Fools said i,you do not know
AdWords like a cancer grows.
Hear my words that I might teach you,
Click my paid ads that I might reach you.
But my words like silent MFAs fell,
And echoed
In the wells of Panama

And the people bowed and prayed
To the search engine God they made.
And the sign flashed out its warning,
In the results that it was forming.
And the signs said, the words of the prophets
Are written in the sponsored listings
And content network.
And whispered in the sounds of Panama.
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Old 05-04-2008   #4
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Re: Yahoo says goodbye Microsoft, hello AdWords?

Kudos, Chris!!!

That is priceless
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Old 05-05-2008   #5
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Re: Yahoo says goodbye Microsoft, hello AdWords?

Thanks Summit! In reagrds to the original post...I would agree that some major is afoot. It is possible thought that Google has gained some leverage thanks to the MS au-revoir, in my opinion. Others?
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Old 05-05-2008   #6
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Re: Yahoo says goodbye Microsoft, hello AdWords?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris Boggs View Post
Thanks Summit! In reagrds to the original post...I would agree that some major is afoot. It is possible thought that Google has gained some leverage thanks to the MS au-revoir, in my opinion. Others?
Chris, nice S&G adaptation! Perhaps today's song is M&P's "Monday, Monday!" Meaning, Yahoo stock will be down of course, and perhaps we'll see the long awaited Google/Yahoo announcement?
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Old 05-05-2008   #7
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Re: Yahoo says goodbye Microsoft, hello AdWords?

Hello AdWords? Well, apparently not so fast. As Kevin Heisler pointed out earlier, Yahoo shares would tumble Monday.

Indeed, shareholders agree. Premarket trading had Yahoo down 22% and continued to stay steady at a 20% decline after Monday trading opened. The previous 50% per share gain was based on anticipation of the acquisition.

Based on what Yahoo has to offer, they may be hard pressed to show/demonstrate that rebuffing Microsoft was the right move. Jerry Yang is on the hot seat to turn the Yahoo ship around. YHOO hasn't been doing well. The question is if shareholders will tolerable Yang's refusal of the deal?

Personally, I think YHOO shareholders probably aren't too bright. They didn't force Terry Semel out earlier even when the STREET called for his ousting (I think it's bad when the STREET is making the right calls).

The AdWords test MAY help, but no one on the Street is paying attention or even hoping that to be the savior. And rightly so. There's no indication that Yahoo displaying AdWords would benefit the company. As search marketers, we might think GREAT! But, as a business and with shareholders, Yahoo may not have the luxury of testing out the model and waiting to reap any potential benefits.

Interesting reaction quotes from Yahoo's employees.

Stock investment-wise, $33 stock is better than... $23 at this point.

I think Yang F'ed up and I don't see Yang as the one turning the Yahoo ship around. If you look at the business model of Google and Yahoo, they are ONLINE. That's their revenue stream. Microsoft does not need to depend on online advertising for revenue. They do need to have a stronger foothold to stay relevant and remain a player in the future. But Yahoo NEEDS better search to increase revenue. Their portal properties will only take them so far. But as search is concerned, their tech is inferior to Google (as evidenced by market share).

An alliance with Google will likely get a LOT of scrutiny and probably not be approved by the feds. Even Google had to posture a bit over the potential of Microsoft and Yahoo merging.

This will be interesting to see.
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Old 05-05-2008   #8
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Re: Yahoo says goodbye Microsoft, hello AdWords?

Yahoo's stock will continue to slide for the next quarter.
The declining dollar and slowing US economy will have an impact on the US retailers' marketing budgets, further eroding profits.

It's the most valuable employees that leave first, and only the dingleberrys hang around until fired.

Stock will fall down to around $16 when a big deal is made. MS will pick up Yahoo at nearly half the cost of their initial offer. But then again, Yahoo may not have many employees by then.



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Old 05-05-2008   #9
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Re: Yahoo says goodbye Microsoft, hello AdWords?

Very good point about the brain drain. Microsoft is reported to be primarily interested in Yahoo's engineers. On another thread here we talked a little bit about the brain drain at Google - some of their brightest that left were the entrepreneurial ones (though Google seems to be in no danger of loosing good engineering talent).

Dingleberries... I like that.
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Old 05-05-2008   #10
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Re: Yahoo says goodbye Microsoft, hello AdWords?

Strangely, if YHOO settles in at about 24 bucks, which it appears it might, this would seemingly justify Y!'s belief that Microsoft's bid undervalued the company. MS's initial $31 bid was a tad above a 60% premium of Y!'s then $19+ price; a 60% premium on the current $24 price tops the off-floated $37 number by a buck and change.

Of course, 31 or 33 bucks in hand better than 37 or 38 on paper.
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Old 05-05-2008   #11
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Re: Yahoo says goodbye Microsoft, hello AdWords?

It just occured to me. Notice how AWR is still keeping a super low profile even though the Yahoo/Microsoft deal is officially off. This just confirms our hypothesis that it's a Google/Yahoo deal that has kept AWR out of public view for these past few weeks. So, using the "AWR Indicator" can we assume a Google/Yahoo announcement is not only imminent, but has in fact been in the planning stages for weeks
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Old 05-05-2008   #12
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Re: Yahoo says goodbye Microsoft, hello AdWords?

Any Google-Yahoo deal would only be on paper - subject to extremely regulatory "oh my gosh!".

The type of deal would be important. If Google was making a bid for Yahoo, then Yahoo's share would go straight up. If it's only an AdWords deal, then who knows? I dont think an AdWords deal is going to be that much valuable. It signals Yahoo leaving the PPC game - and THAT'S where the search revenue comes from.
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Old 05-05-2008   #13
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Re: Yahoo says goodbye Microsoft, hello AdWords?

Quote:
Originally Posted by cryptblade View Post
... I dont think an AdWords deal is going to be that much valuable. It signals Yahoo leaving the PPC game - and THAT'S where the search revenue comes from.
A deal could pull in decent revenue for *both* companies. For example:

1) Google serves ads on Yahoo Search
2) Yahoo serves Ads on Google Content Network
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Old 05-05-2008   #14
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Re: Yahoo says goodbye Microsoft, hello AdWords?

Maybe MS circles on back in 3 months?

What a different a quarter makes?
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Old 05-05-2008   #15
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Re: Yahoo says goodbye Microsoft, hello AdWords?

That's the hope of some stock holders. The stock ended above $24 so the slide wasn't TOO bad. But compared $33 vs. $24? I'll take $33 any day.

But, sustainability is the key. Any Google-Yahoo deal is not set in stone, only on paper. Subject to anti-trust regulatory scrutiny, IF that scenario becomes reality then maybe Yahoo will be saved.

Both Ballmer and Yang F'ed up - let's not kid ourselves. I think Ballmer came at it wrong and was like...well Obadiah Stane. And Yang is being like a pissy whiny kid going - but this is MY company :'( no fair!

I think for them, Yahoo and MSN together makes sense to counterbalance Google.

Google protested it only for posturing - they KNOW that Yahoo-MSN combined still don't stand a chance against them.

I'm not sold that Google-Yahoo would ever be allowed to be unified in any way, permanently that is.
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Old 05-06-2008   #16
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Re: Yahoo says goodbye Microsoft, hello AdWords?

MS has a “never say die” approach. This may be their first failure, not the last.

I am happy that the deal is scrapped as of now. My only worry is that there should NOT be any monopoly of any company in any market.

Today we have 3 major players in online search marketing – Google, Yahoo and MSN.

Now if MSN buys Yahoo we will have to be satisfied with two.

And God forbids if (say a few years down the line) Google buys MSN or vice-versa.

Just can’t imagine the situation.
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Old 05-06-2008   #17
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Re: Yahoo says goodbye Microsoft, hello AdWords?

This is a huge mess. Yang will get serious flack from Yahoo shareholders on the way he handled this. Microsoft may well return, and grab Yahoo for a much lower price.

Sure, a Google/Yahoo ad sharing deal would help Yahoo, but it's not a long term strategy. It would mostly benefit Google and AdWords advertisers.

Yahoo has lost search marketing to Google, who is now way ahead. It's not clear what assets Yahoo has, and what options they have.

Yahoo blew search marketing. Their technology/infrastructure is nowhere near as good as Google's. They never developed a major Content Network like Google did, and they have nowhere near the ad options that Google offers. Google can now project ads on: google.com, a massive number of websites, mobile devices, print, radio, TV. It's clear that Google's plan is to become a worldwide ad property.

Time is running out for Yahoo, and the end game is approaching.

Last edited by abbottsys : 05-06-2008 at 11:11 AM.
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Old 05-06-2008   #18
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Re: Yahoo says goodbye Microsoft, hello AdWords?

So what is Yahoo's long term strategy?

I always thought they should be happy playing second fiddle to the big G. Over time its natural for consumers to rebel against the big leader, no matter how "do no evil" they are. Build them up knock them down, that’s the American way.

Just ask Webcrawler, Netscape, Brittney Spears and Bill Clinton.

Over simplification:

Google is a search site that also allows some personal customization to your search interface.

Yahoo is a social site focused on entertainment, gossip and news that happens to have a search function.

Yahoo should stick with what they are good at doing; social media search and news. Carve out their niche there with world class customer service and a small but incredibly fine tuned content network with a simplistic ad management interface. They should also be a technology laggard, watching and learning from Google’s mistakes.

We should also remember there still is a great deal of the U.S to conquer in search, some estimates show that only 50% of the US is online. And the World market is still up for grabs. There are still a lot of people around the world who have yet to experience the Internet, search and adapt a search site as their own.


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Old 05-06-2008   #19
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Re: Yahoo says goodbye Microsoft, hello AdWords?

Well, the seeds of Yahoo's problems were planted a long time ago when they diverged from search to become a "social portal".

Google maintained a laser-like focus on search.

Then, when it turned out that search could be monetized but social portals could not, Yahoo was trapped.

Sure, Yahoo could survive, but it would be as a *much smaller* company. They simply cannot monetize anywhere near the level needed.

No matter what happens to Yahoo, survive as a smaller company, or get purchased by Microsoft, it will have almost no effect whatsoever on Google's growth. Because the search marketing train left the station a while ago.
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Old 05-06-2008   #20
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Re: Yahoo says goodbye Microsoft, hello AdWords?

Quote:
Microsoft may well return, and grab Yahoo for a much lower price.
During the last days of the brouhaha the institutional investors said they would be willing to listen at 34, 35 or so, doubt if they would go lower unless YHOO tanks to under 20. And so far the price has been surprisingly strong. Assuming a base price of 24 the market -- not Ballmer, not Yang -- has valued the deal (base + premium) at a whopping 38 or so.

When all this started Y!'s price was 19 and change, now appears to be solid mid 20s. Guess Yang should thank Ballmer for adding 5 or so dollars of value.
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