Microsoft can never, every go up against AdWords!!

[abbottsys]

Think about it for a moment.. what exactly is Microsoft trying to do by offering $44 Billion for Yahoo? They want to springboard into a market that has slipped away from them i.e. search marketing. But it's too late, the Google AdWords platform, with it's superb Search *and* Content Network, is just to far ahead to catch.

Mr. Ballmer would be much better off donating his $44 Billion to the Bill & Melinda fund, where it could be put to work helping the world. At least the PR value would make him a hero, because buying Yahoo will not. That deal has disaster written all over it.

My advice to Google? Sit and watch. Keep your money in your pocket. Pay for nothing. If Yahoo remains free Google wins, and if Yahoo gets bought by Microsoft then Google wins even faster!

[sewingcircle]

This has been said about Microsoft so many times with so many products. Microsoft Word (vs Wordperfect), Excel (vs Lotus), Internet Explorer (vs Netscape)...the list goes on and on.

These are all products which no one took seriously until version 3 or so, and then they took over the market completely with each of them.

Microsoft is rarely the first-mover in a space, but they *never* stop working to get what they want, and they win more often than anyone in the long term.

Never count them out.

[abbottsys]

Originally Posted by sewingcircle

This has been said about Microsoft so many times with so many products. Microsoft Word (vs Wordperfect), Excel (vs Lotus), Internet Explorer (vs Netscape)...the list goes on and on.

These are all products which no one took seriously until version 3 or so, and then they took over the market completely with each of them.

Microsoft is rarely the first-mover in a space, but they *never* stop working to get what they want, and they win more often than anyone in the long term.

Never count them out.

I agree, but I think this strategy has run out of steam, big time. Notice that all these Microsoft successes were desktop apps, and on platforms where Microsoft also controlled the OS to boot.

Search engine advertising is totally different. It's not a desktop app, it's a global industry. Even if Microsoft succeeds in buying Yahoo they will be nowhere near the Google AdWords infrastructure, flexibility and reach.

Let's face it, if Microsoft knew anything about Net markets, they would never have allowed Google to build a giant franchise right under their nose. Microsoft was so busy milking the old proprietary desktop app/OS business that they totally took their eyes of the ball.

And a quick $44 billion will not get the ball back in their court. Not even close. Microsoft lacks creativity... the creativity to invent new markets, not to wait for others and then try to buy in after the fact.

Anyway, just my opinion.

[Janvs]

Nothing is everlasting and everything is cyclic, it also counts for Google.

The time when it happens for Google depends on the competition.

I don't think Microsoft wants to attack Google on its core-business or would they?
not sure what Yahoo has in its portfolio, but there must be something that Microsoft can use to create bigger marketshare.

[Discovery]

I echo the comments that you should never count MS out. And IE, Word and XL are perfect examples.

With the Internet; sure the delivery mechanism is different, but how you corner a market is not all that different. MS knows how to work the global market - Google is just learning this.

PPC is not what MS is after, at least not todays version of it.

Mobile advertising, remote advertising - physical location advertising with digital delivery, Internet TV, as well as home HD networks are all just around the corner. MS has the money, the leverage and the experience necesary to pull together the Industry leaders into a rounded service offering. An offering that Google may find to be stiff competition.

If we look just at PPC and the Internet as we see it today we are not undertanding the long view. MS is looking far over the horizon and planning for what is to come. Yahoo, its properties and some of its knowledge base is in my view but a small part of their plan.

One example: If advertising is all about properly targeting then demographic and behavioral data is critical to building out a robust targeting system. Microsoft has collected nearly 25 years of consumer data from every angle online and offiline, from MS money users to visio users. This data will be leveraged to support their advertising systems. How loyal will advertisers be to Google if Microhoo comes out with pin point targeting across a multitude of media outlets, and all Google has is their 10 years of Internet only data to work with?

If Y declines an MS offer of 36 then their stock will quickly decline. Then a hostile takover will be even that much easier.

Discovery

[jimbeetle]

If we look just at PPC and the Internet as we see it today we are not undertanding the long view.

Wholeheartedly agree. Have no idea what the Internet advertising landscape is going to look like in, say, five years, only to know that it is going to be radically different from today. Heck, extend that out to all marketing across all media; it will be a different world.

Looking at a Y! acquisition solely as a PPC play -- as well as it might be for the short term -- overlooks all its other assets that can be leveraged going forward.

[abbottsys]

Good points Discovery and jimbeetle. I was kinda looking at the shorter term. Although, do things really change that much. I started running PPC text ads in 1998, and although the distribution and technology has changed, the good old PPC text ads are just the same a decade later

[Discovery]

In that light Asys then the 3 line print ad is not all that different, which goes back what 100 some odd years... and in many ways it is not. Just the delivery mechanism and the efficiencies that mechanism can achieve have changed.

This is a tangent, but in my view PPC has been on a slow decline for the past couple years. Without new media opportunities available or easily accessible to advertisers more and more companies start to get packed into the strict web based PPC space in each vertical. Prices go up, click fraud and junk clicks increase and soon you pass the point of a profitable advertising medium.

At least some of the dots between mobile, remote digital ads, PC and Television/ITV need to be connected within a year.

Discovery

[cryptblade]

Originally Posted by Discovery

This is a tangent, but in my view PPC has been on a slow decline for the past couple years. Without new media opportunities available or easily accessible to advertisers more and more companies start to get packed into the strict web based PPC space in each vertical. Prices go up, click fraud and junk clicks increase and soon you pass the point of a profitable advertising medium.

Very interesting point. Something I have not pondered much about but IS very important. Wall Street looks at all 3 major SEs. Knowing that MSN/Windows Live is backed by Microsoft - who's core business is NOT Internet advertising, Wall Street won't be in such a panic compared to looking at Google. If things start slipping - again - for Google, Wall Street might have a bigger say and this could affect a lot of things including Google business decisions.

Microsoft is definitely in the position to wage a war of attrition. I mean, you can even add console gaming to Microsoft's conquest. The 2 main console systems are Xbox and Playstation. The Wii holds a distant 3rd (good for Nintendo for their resurgence).

Give Microsoft enough time to fight, they'll get it right. But I think Google sees this which is why they seem to be more proactive in diversifying. I think Google is aware that they are ahead but not satisfied to cruise.

[Discovery]

Well you say it and them wham, something happens the next day. So Google finally launched TV ads as part of their offering. And it is not a small subset of dead airtime stations.

Unlike Radio TV gives the viewer a better chance to remember your website, company name, and marketing message.

Many people are watching TV on their computer
Many people now use some type of DVR so they can pause, rewind and catch the name, website or offer again if it is of interest.
TV offers branding benefits
TV you can select very specific demographics which have been tracked for many years. You know what you get when your ad runs on Lifetime network as compared to Spike TV.

So this is great news in my view and I'm very excited about it.
It can open the doors and relieve some of the pressure built up in PPC. It can reach an audience that may not be frequent internet users that you are currently not reaching. It provides an easier mechanism to make your tv media buys. If you own stock in Neilson it makes their data and ratings more valuable!

Note: Google TV ads are still a bit glitchy. All the help files lead to information about PPC text ads and have nothing to say about video formats and other constraints for the commercials.

Discovery

[sitetruth]

Originally Posted by sewingcircle

Microsoft is rarely the first-mover in a space, but they *never* stop working to get what they want, and they win more often than anyone in the long term.

Never count them out.

The XBox effort is striking. The original XBox was a huge money drain for Microsoft. Now Microsoft is profitable in that space, and arguably the leader.