Chris Boggs
07-01-2005, 03:53 PM
Hi all,
I had the opportunity (thanks Elisabeth :) ) to lead a roundtable at SEW Live in Atlanta on 6/28/05 titled "The Future of Search." The following will summarize the topics that I presented as being of possible interest.
In order to keep the thread number down, I have limited the topics to this post instead of parsing the subject into different categories. If we find that many people are interested in speaking about one or more of these particular topics, we can split the thread as needed. Feel free to start your own thread if you feel any particular topic warrants it. If I recognize any topics that already have their own thread(s), I will link to them from my description. Of course almost all of the topics fit this bill, so please understand if I only link to a few more recent ones.
Although I asked everyone for more possible topics, no one seemed to step up with any ideas except one gentleman who brought up the subject of "folksonomy" described (http://atomiq.org/archives/2004/08/folksonomy_social_classification.html) as a system of social classification evident in products such as "Flicker" and "Furl," among others. This was an interesting topic and brought to the table a few valid questions:
1. Would folksonomy affect future search engine rankings?
a. Consensus: "Possibly.” One comment was made that there seemed to be too many tagging options in a product such as Flicker to ever make it that pervasively popular.
2. Could a site be optimized to attract such users?
a. See “personalization” below for more on this.
The topics I presented covered three basic areas: search in general, verticals and personalized search, and algorithms. Also I threw in a couple of miscellaneous topics.
“Search in general”
1. How fast will search engines change? How often?
a. The answers to this were pretty basic, with most agreeing that the current pace in policy shifts and algo updates would remain the same. No one seemed to think that SE’s could ever entirely re-index on a daily basis.
2. Will directories maintain their popularity and importance in terms of the ability to help in organic rankings?
a. Most agreed that directories are going to continue to gain popularity, but that their effect on SE rankings will probably diminish as more were used for the purpose of helping rankings. The “big guys” will probably stay. One gentleman had never heard of DMOZ. This seemed surprising.
3. Will AskJeeves and other second tier search engines gain share from the “big three?”
a. One person said there was really only a “big two,” as MSN couldn’t be considered “there” yet. Another person asked why try to build new SE's? One lady spoke up and said the simple answer to that is that inovation is the key to any industry's survival. Another made perhaps the most valid point: in 1999, could anyone have predicted the popularity of Google’s product? Another person felt that there was too much advertising on AskJeeves.
4. Will PPC listings take up more “real estate” in SERPs in the future? Will they eventually knock Organic listings to second page or at least below the fold?
a. This was a very popular topic. Many people felt that they wouldn’t take any more listings, most feeling that it was in the best interests of successful search engines to continue to present “deserving” content. One person mentioned that with the addition of Google add-ons, most organic listings were already below the fold. Others described that many of these “deserving” sites were becoming ranked by black hat SEO and had no business at the level they currently enjoyed. Consensus: no fear of organic listings completely gone from first SERP, especially with rising cost of PPC.
(Excellent current thread on this topic here (http://forums.searchenginewatch.com/showthread.php?t=418) )
5. Will LSI really become a major part of the determining relevancy for use in rankings?
a. This seemed to be “over the heads” or simply uninteresting to many. (Sorry Xan)
(next topic section in following reply)
I had the opportunity (thanks Elisabeth :) ) to lead a roundtable at SEW Live in Atlanta on 6/28/05 titled "The Future of Search." The following will summarize the topics that I presented as being of possible interest.
In order to keep the thread number down, I have limited the topics to this post instead of parsing the subject into different categories. If we find that many people are interested in speaking about one or more of these particular topics, we can split the thread as needed. Feel free to start your own thread if you feel any particular topic warrants it. If I recognize any topics that already have their own thread(s), I will link to them from my description. Of course almost all of the topics fit this bill, so please understand if I only link to a few more recent ones.
Although I asked everyone for more possible topics, no one seemed to step up with any ideas except one gentleman who brought up the subject of "folksonomy" described (http://atomiq.org/archives/2004/08/folksonomy_social_classification.html) as a system of social classification evident in products such as "Flicker" and "Furl," among others. This was an interesting topic and brought to the table a few valid questions:
1. Would folksonomy affect future search engine rankings?
a. Consensus: "Possibly.” One comment was made that there seemed to be too many tagging options in a product such as Flicker to ever make it that pervasively popular.
2. Could a site be optimized to attract such users?
a. See “personalization” below for more on this.
The topics I presented covered three basic areas: search in general, verticals and personalized search, and algorithms. Also I threw in a couple of miscellaneous topics.
“Search in general”
1. How fast will search engines change? How often?
a. The answers to this were pretty basic, with most agreeing that the current pace in policy shifts and algo updates would remain the same. No one seemed to think that SE’s could ever entirely re-index on a daily basis.
2. Will directories maintain their popularity and importance in terms of the ability to help in organic rankings?
a. Most agreed that directories are going to continue to gain popularity, but that their effect on SE rankings will probably diminish as more were used for the purpose of helping rankings. The “big guys” will probably stay. One gentleman had never heard of DMOZ. This seemed surprising.
3. Will AskJeeves and other second tier search engines gain share from the “big three?”
a. One person said there was really only a “big two,” as MSN couldn’t be considered “there” yet. Another person asked why try to build new SE's? One lady spoke up and said the simple answer to that is that inovation is the key to any industry's survival. Another made perhaps the most valid point: in 1999, could anyone have predicted the popularity of Google’s product? Another person felt that there was too much advertising on AskJeeves.
4. Will PPC listings take up more “real estate” in SERPs in the future? Will they eventually knock Organic listings to second page or at least below the fold?
a. This was a very popular topic. Many people felt that they wouldn’t take any more listings, most feeling that it was in the best interests of successful search engines to continue to present “deserving” content. One person mentioned that with the addition of Google add-ons, most organic listings were already below the fold. Others described that many of these “deserving” sites were becoming ranked by black hat SEO and had no business at the level they currently enjoyed. Consensus: no fear of organic listings completely gone from first SERP, especially with rising cost of PPC.
(Excellent current thread on this topic here (http://forums.searchenginewatch.com/showthread.php?t=418) )
5. Will LSI really become a major part of the determining relevancy for use in rankings?
a. This seemed to be “over the heads” or simply uninteresting to many. (Sorry Xan)
(next topic section in following reply)