Going on the record

[AussieWebmaster]

With all the talk of the new beta search at MSN and how it may or may not play in the marketplace, I figure here is the perfect chance for us to make a claim and then come back to it this time next year and see how we called it.

I believe MSN solidifies the number 3 spot this time next year. If they develop some major relationships (with who at this stage it would be hard to determine) they could be pushing close to Yahoo's number 2 spot.

So for the sake of the record that is a fairly easy prediction - nothing major will happen with Bill Gates' search engine.

[andrewgoodman]

I think MSN Search has a chance for a steady gain for the long, long term, particularly in many international markets (after all it helps to have a presence on the ground as an employer worldwide). But this won't happen in a year, so I don't expect major changes in the "standings" in a year. Maybe over five years.

As Google expands their global presence, they may gain a foothold similar to Microsoft's. AOL has been largely unsuccessful in doing this, and Yahoo is arguably falling behind Google in this respect. Google's aggressive expansion surely must make competitors nervous. "And people wonder why they needed the IPO..."

[AussieWebmaster]

I think MSN Search has a chance for a steady gain for the long, long term, particularly in many international markets (after all it helps to have a presence on the ground as an employer worldwide). But this won't happen in a year, so I don't expect major changes in the "standings" in a year. Maybe over five years.

As Google expands their global presence, they may gain a foothold similar to Microsoft's. AOL has been largely unsuccessful in doing this, and Yahoo is arguably falling behind Google in this respect. Google's aggressive expansion surely must make competitors nervous. "And people wonder why they needed the IPO..." I agree Andrew... and the deals they are cutting recently are also part of the agressive moves... AOL dropping Overture/Yahoo in Europe for Google... the buy into Baidu in Asia... and a more agressive stance in South America seems to reflect this well.

[I, Brian]

MSN Beta so far promises a very interesting search engine, and obviously that's good for choice for webmasters.

However, I can't help but think that the real movement isn't about relevant SERPs, as much as search branding, and grabbing that part of the marketing before the user has even thought of looking for a search engine.

By that, I mean that the search engines seem eager to grab the user before they've even accessed the web - it started with toolbars, now it's moving closer to the consumer via Desktop search applications - Google, MSN, and Ask Jeeves all have one at various stages of development, and Yahoo! is bound to follow suit.

So it's a case of search re-orientating around the user, rather than the SERPs themselves.

Google releasing the developer kit for Google Desktop is precisely the sort of aggressive move that will ensure Google's share of the market. Perception of value of a product is often more important than it's actual value - as countless Microsoft vs Linux arguments have tried to show.

In a year's time? Search as more specialised - or the specialisation really taking off. That's location, context, and new media. But the search market as more fluid, with nothing solidified. There are too many variables that could change everything - desktop search brings with it security concerns, and any exploitation of those concerns in the wrong place at the wrong place could knock back someone's market share quite significantly.

Also - let's see what happens with desktop advertising - a form of personalised advertising via AdWords, but without the browser. :)

And XML/RSS has yet to really hit the mainstream - it feels like there are whole markets and interests there that are going to erupt soon enough.

[rustybrick]

6 months after MS integrates MSN Search into the OS, it will dominate.

[I, Brian]

Microsoft is losing market share, and Longhorn is continually delayed further back. The days of MS dominating home PCs is dying away, and MS only have their appalling security record to blame.

Now imagine what a kick Google could give by investing in Google Linux. :)

Google could easily see it accepted and shipping with new PCs, too. It would also be a superb way to ensure Google captured users for its own ad base. After all, from toolbar to desktop and backing Mozilla - why not OS in 5 years time? Or, at least, a strong sponsorship of one.

[Marcia]

MSN even right now is dynamite for a certain market niche (always has been for that market), and they're updating much faster than Yahoo at this point in time. If it's any indication, I'll predict that they'll have the "freshest" results available - because they do now, most certainly when it comes to new sites and pages, even though it's not their own search technology they're serving up yet.

[Dave Hawley]

I say that MSN will hold number 2 position in one year. Google will still be number 1 (probably increasing its dominancy) and Yahoo will be YahWho?

[orbbital]

6 months after MS integrates MSN Search into the OS, it will dominate.

The more I think about it, the more I agree with this. The new search is showing potential to be a major contender. I think Google will hold top spot (at least for the next few years), because it has become so good and everybody's favourite. But, if Microsoft were to integrate the functionality in the OS, and there results are what we expect them to be, it could very well dominate, if purely for convenience reasons.

[kidmercury]

my prediction: a failure for msn. i honestly wouldnt be surprised if the product doesnt get out of beta for a long while. personally i dont find the quality of the search to be near the google level.

regarding its integration with the microsoft os, that undeniably is extremely powerful -- but search is such a vital tool for virtually all internet users that i do believe the best product will win, regardless of who may have an edge up in terms of distribution channels. and with adsense, google has ensured a way to get in people's face in other ways aside from google.com.