Yep, forecasting the success of an SEO Campaign - with numbers from organic visits to KPIsseems foolish to most among the SEO community. But tell that to a potential client who wants to put an ROI on the potential SEO campaign cost.

When you get these clients and pitch to them...
- What do you tell them?
- If you attempt to forecast, how do you do it?
- What numbers do you focus on?
- What disclosure/warning do you make on these numbers?

Very curious what SEO folks here think...

Forecasting is easy by using a few "if's"

1. The estimated searches from word tracker or other keyword research tools for the month.
2. MarketingSherpa report to determine the clickthrough percentages for the top ten placements.
3. If known, sites conversion rate (if unknown, MarketingSpera has a report that gives different industry averages, usually between 2% and 4%.)
4. Average conversion value (if known, can't provide value if they don't know what their average conversion value is.)

With these numbers, you can easily create a spreadsheet that shows the estimate ROI "if" the rankings achive rankings in the top 10 (I give and average ranking of top 5 and an average for top 10).

The client has to understand that the estimates are only good if the site achives rankings for all the keywords in the list.

4. Average conversion value (if known, can't provide value if they don't know what their average conversion value is.)Their average conversion rate, what the average ticket amount is, and how much of a markup they work on for items. If they work on a very smalll margin, it can take a long time to even see their investment back.

There's also a ceiling for how much some businesses can do, especially small ones.